Pim van Vliet, PhD, is the creator of High Returns from Low Risk: A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox, with Jan de Koning.
The low-volatility premium could be the most compelling anomaly in financial markets: Less risky securities outperform their riskier counterparts over the long run.
Empirical assessments of the capital asset pricing mannequin (CAPM) first documented this counterintuitive phenomenon greater than a half century in the past. It emerged not in a seek for alpha however quite as an unwelcome actuality, an unintended consequence of idea testing, and remains poorly understood to today.
This makes the defensive low-volatility issue distinctive and units it other than different elements.
For the reason that low volatility issue defies a risk-based explanation, teachers who consider in environment friendly markets have bother accepting it. Certainly, Eugene Fama and Kenneth French left low volatility out of their three-factor and five-factor models.
Practitioners, against this, typically battle to capitalize on the issue due to the excessive threat related to it relative to its benchmarks and due to leverage constraints and potential profession dangers.
Such complexities and hurdles make low volatility a particular animal throughout the increasing “issue zoo.”
But the low-volatility issue is each resilient and sturdy.
Right here, by making use of the precept that the only clarification is often probably the most correct — Occam’s razor — we make the case for low volatility. The graphic beneath exhibits how low volatility interacts with different elements. Even after seven cuts or slices, the issue nonetheless performs. If it retains its alpha after so many slices, its simplicity should be key to its significance.
The Beginning Level: CAPM
Utilizing US market knowledge from July 1940 to December 2023, we measure the volatility factor very similar to a Fama and French fashion issue, by taking an extended place on low-volatility shares and a brief one on their high-volatility counterparts. Over this era, the low volatility premium (VOL) equals 6.4% with a beta that by development could be very near zero. The CAPM alpha is 6.3% every year with a t-stat of 5.3, far above the essential ranges Campbell Harvey recommended to minimize the risk of finding “fake factors.”
Low-Volatility Premium (VOL) Managed for Different Components, July 1940 to December 2023
Sources: The Kenneth R. French Data Library and Paradox Investing
The First Slice, 2FM (Charges): Two Components, Equities and Bonds
When the CAPM was unveiled, Richard Roll’s critique was that bonds and other assets should be included in the market portfolio. Since low-volatility shares resemble bond-like shares, this increased rate-sensitivity may very well be an evidence. Nonetheless, a two-factor regression that features each equities and bonds lowers VOL’s alpha by solely 0.3%.
Second Slice, FF 3FM: Fama-French Three-Issue Mannequin
One clarification of the low-volatility issue is that worth is usually defensive. Whereas the connection is time various, on common volatility masses positively on worth and negatively on dimension. The basic three-factor Fama–French regression, which incorporates each the worth and dimension elements, reduces VOL’s alpha by 1.1%.
Third Slice, 4FM (Inv): Three-Issue Mannequin Plus Funding
Fama and French augmented their three-factor mannequin with two extra elements — funding and profitability — in 2015. We discover the funding issue accounts for about 0.5% of VOL’s alpha. This makes intuitive sense since conservative, low-investment corporations are likely to exhibit much less volatility.
Fourth Slice, 4FM (Prof): Three-Issue Mannequin Plus Profitability
Of those two new elements, profitability has a a lot stronger relationship to volatility and accounts for 1.2% of VOL’s alpha. We discover that unprofitable corporations are typically very unstable at the same time as their worthwhile friends don’t at all times display the alternative. Thus, the short leg drives most of this result.
Fifth Slice, FF 5FM: Fama-French 5-Issue Mannequin
Mixed, these 5 elements deliver VOL’s alpha down by 0.9%. This means that funding and profitability are totally different dimensions of the standard issue that work together with worth and dimension.
Sixth Slice, 6FM (Mother): 5-Issue Mannequin Plus Momentum
Essentially the most dynamic issue, momentum, generates excessive gross returns however requires appreciable turnover, which erodes internet returns. For this reason Fama and French didn’t embrace it of their five-factor mannequin. Once we add momentum, the VOL premium doesn’t rise or fall.
Seventh Slice, 7FM: The Kitchen Sink
In our closing, all-inclusive “kitchen sink” regression, VOL’s alpha declines by 0.2% and remains to be standing at a statistically important 2.1%.
All this demonstrates low volatility’s general robustness. The issue’s outperformance survives critiques from all totally different angles. By making use of Occam’s razor to the issue zoo and slicing low volatility each which method, the technique nonetheless stands out because the premier issue. If it takes 5 or 6 elements to elucidate it, low volatility is probably not that dangerous in spite of everything.
To take it one step additional, by integrating worth, high quality, and momentum right into a “Conservative Formula,” we create an enhanced low-volatility technique that beats VOL together with all the opposite elements. The next determine exhibits how the Conservative Minus Speculative (CMS) portfolio fares after every of our earlier cuts. The alpha begins at 13.3% and solely falls to eight.2% in spite of everything seven slices.
Enhanced Volatility Premium (CMS) Managed for Different Components, July 1940 to December 2023
Sources: The Kenneth R. French Data Library and Paradox Investing
Amid low demand for defensive investing through the latest tech-driven market rally, the case for low-volatility investing could also be stronger than ever. In a market that usually overlooks it and a world the place the plain is usually overcrowded and overvalued, the low-volatility anomaly stands as a testomony to the facility of contrarian pondering.
Generally, the less-trodden path provides the higher journey. As we glance forward, the query stays: Will the market finally catch as much as this hidden gem, or will low volatility proceed to be the market’s best-kept secret?
For extra from Pim van Vliet, PhD, don’t miss High Returns from Low Risk: A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox, with Jan de Koning.
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Picture credit score: ©Getty Photographs / Jordan Lye
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